Cosmic Balance, Keeping It Simple with Orbital Sustainability.

Once upon a time, humanity underestimated its impact on the environment. Today, we recognize the challenges of managing orbital debris in an increasingly congested Low Earth Orbit (LEO). For two decades, the standard approach has focused on per-satellite rules, but with the surge in satellites, fixed regulations are no longer enough.

Orbital capacity isn't just about the number of satellites but involves defining boundaries on how, where, and how densely satellites utilize orbital volume. Physical collision risks, long-term sustainability, operational risks, and volume coordination are key factors influencing capacity.

Various factors, including re-entry risks, impacts on astronomy, spectrum access, environmental effects, and sustainability impacts, shape the constraints on orbit use. Simplified metrics may offer insights, but caution is required to avoid overlooking the complexity of underlying constraints.

Orbital capacity is not a number of satellites, but rather a set of bounds on where, how, and how many satellites make use of orbital volume.

Defining the right number of satellites involves a complex blend of science, stakeholder objectives, technology, and policy. Balancing competing values and priorities is crucial, addressing questions about operational risks, economic benefits, and environmental impacts.

Some of the Steps Towards Orbital Capacity Management:

1. Developing Consensus: Establish technical definitions and modeling assumptions through community consensus to address stakeholder needs.

2. Open-Source Modeling Tools: Build confidence in accessible, open-source environmental modeling tools to facilitate transparent, community-wide use.

3. Incorporating Capacity into Regulation: Move beyond per-satellite standards by integrating consensus models into regulatory processes, ensuring sustainability objectives guide decision-making.

4. Adaptive Governance: Embrace adaptive management and governance strategies, learning from terrestrial resource management experiences, to iteratively tailor strategies based on observations.

In the pursuit of orbital sustainability, it's essential to consider the broader environmental impacts. The potential consequences extend beyond collision risks, encompassing atmospheric satellite disposals, ground-based astronomy disruptions, and the release of materials during re-entry. Striking a balance between technological progress and minimizing environmental harm is a challenge that necessitates a comprehensive approach to managing orbital use.

Determining the optimal number of satellites is a complex task. It depends on multiple factors, including assumptions about future launches, responsible on-orbit behavior, and our ability to address climate change. The challenge lies in establishing constraints that balance these variables, highlighting the inherent complexities involved in defining what constitutes a sustainable level of activity in Earth's orbit.

The path to sustainable orbit management is inherently global, requiring collaboration and input from stakeholders worldwide. Questions about acceptable operational risks, economic benefits, and equitable access to orbital resources demand a collective response. As the international community grapples with these challenges, finding common ground becomes crucial for fostering a sustainable and cooperative approach to space exploration.

In the evolving landscape of space exploration, managing orbital capacity is not just a technical challenge but a reflection of our shared responsibility for the cosmic environment. As we embark on this journey towards sustainable space practices, it's not only about regulating satellite numbers but also about nurturing a mindset of responsible and mindful coexistence with the cosmos. The effort to define and adhere to orbital capacity limits is an investment in the long-term viability and health of Earth's orbital neighborhood.

Orbital capacity is the missing link connecting sustainability goals to decision-making in the space community. As we witness a surge in proposed satellites, managing capacity becomes vital for achieving sustainability. Success requires collaboration, transparency, and dedication from operators, regulators, and stakeholders. The effort invested will undoubtedly be worthwhile.

Credits: To sustainably develop space, we must manage orbital capacity - SpaceNews

Edited by: www.linkedin.com/in/shri-sanjay-i-s